Grading of Confidence

"Grading of Confidence" is actually a subsection in Polanyi's chapter on Probability, in _Personal Knowledge_. I know that probability is rhetorically constructed - that is, there is a rhetoric of probability within disciplines -- in the social sciences this probability is measured with statistics. In composition studies, which values the personal narrative, if someone said it happened and is due to X causality, then it is pretty surely true unless someone else comes along and says -- well I experience that differently, and I think it was more due to Y than to X. What you are saying is all in your head.

The rhetoric of probability is really what Polanyi is discussing, although he does not say so or call it rhetoric. And so, if we can measure levels of confidence statistically, then we should also be able to measure levels of confidence by asking people how confident they are. Either way, it is a "grading of confidence" that is constructed rhetorically.

What is the probability that something is random? Like the sidewalk that leads up to my front door. What is the probability that the cement arranged itself that way, accidentally? Polanyi discusses this sort of thing to make a point.